Tessa - Fertility and Economic Growth in India

Fertility Rate and Economic Growth in India
By Tessa Enzy Tookes 

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d3/Baiga_women_and_children,_India.jpg)

With a population of over 1.2 billion people, India is the second-most populous country in the world. After gaining independence from British rule in 1947, India has been slowly and steadily reconstructing its society and working towards a level of economic stability. Pratibha Patil, the former President of India said in a 2012 interview:  "Today India is among the most attractive destinations globally, for investments and business and FDI had increased over the last few years." Over the last decade, India has displayed a definite upward economic trend and it is predicted that India will continue on this path for years to come. 
(http://itrade.gov.il/india/2012/05/16/indian-economic-report-2011-2012/)

India's GDP per capita (current US$): 

                                 .

GDP (PPP) 
India's current GDP per capita: $3,652

GDP (nominal) 
India's current GDP per capita: $1,514

India currently has the tenth highest GDP in the world. Considering the social and economic turmoil India has faced since the rise of the 20th century, economists around the world have big hopes for India's growing economy. With a growth rate fluctuating between 5.3% and 8%, it is clear that India is stepping into the running against superpower countries such as the United States, China and France. 

(http://www.atibt.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/2.3-OLAM-India.pdf)

To get a sense of the breakdown of the India's population, here is a graph showing India's 2011 population by age:

(http://data.worldbank.org/

Here is a graph showing India's decreasing fertility rate from :

 

From this graph it is apparent that India's fertility rate has been steadily decreasing over the last 50 years. Perhaps this somehow correlates to India's increasing GDP.

Here is a scatter plot of both India's GDP and fertility rate over the past 50 years:



If you watch the animation of India's GDP and fertility rate over the course of 50 years, you see the steady decline of fertility rate along the Y axis while the GDP climbs the X axis at a consistent rate starting from the top left hand corner and ending in the bottom right (lower fertility rate and higher GDP.)

This graph shows India's fertility rate and GDP from 2001-2011:

                                                            (http://data.worldbank.org/)


Correlation: -0.958

From this graph it is clear that as India's GDP increases, the fertility rate decreases. This graph displays a negative correlation between GDP and fertility rate, which is what I was originally predicting.
I believe that there is a strong connection between India's rising GDP and decline fertility rate. As India's economy flourishes, the accessibility of healthcare also increases. This ability to receive healthcare increases knowledge about various methods of contraception, which would be a primary contributing factor to a decreasing fertility rate. With the availability of birth control and other types of contraceptives, Indian women (and men) have more power over whether or not they have a child. "The contraceptive prevalence rate in India increased from about 13% in 1971 to 41% in 1992/93 and to 56% in 2006/06."

(Jain, Anrudh K., Jain, Aparna; "Family Planning and Fertility in India" UNFPA - ICOMF Regional Consultation; Family Planning in Asia and the Pacific: Addressing the Challenges), Bangkok, Thailand, Dec. 2010.)

Reflection
I think that India's GDP will continue to increase. India's economy has been growing tremendously ever since gaining independence from Great Britain. India's excellent agricultural industry has strengthened trading relations with various countries. These factors have greatly benefitted India's economy and socio-economic systems. Based on the longitudinal data collected, I expect that India's power and economic stability will definitely continue for years to come.