Tessa - Link Between Fertility and Economic Growth

Link Between Fertility Rate and Economic Growth

By Tessa Enzy Tookes

(http://www.councilforresponsiblegenetics.org/blog/image.axd?picture=2012%2F11%2Fsurrogacyindia.jpg)

Here is a graph showing fertility and GDP per capita for all countries (2011):

(www.bit.ly/PF1BcO)

This graph shows that countries with higher GDPs have lower rates of fertility. The blue countries represent sub-saharan Africa, which is made of of nations with both the highest fertility rate and the lowest GDP. The trend continues on the other side of the spectrum, the graph shows that countries with relatively high GDPs have lower fertility rates. I believe this has to do with the opportunities and resources that come with having a stable economy. Higher GDPs open the doors to a better education and adequate healthcare, two factors that would definitely have an effect on a country's fertility rate.

We cannot, however, say that there is causation between the two variables because of a possible compounding variable such as the rate of literacy in each country. 

Because reading is such a crucial part of society in any nation, the rate of literacy will definitely have an impact on fertility. When a country's citizens are literate, they are able to learn about ways to prevent pregnancy and practice various methods of contraception.

This graph shows fertility rate and literacy rate of adults in all countries (% of people ages 15+) in 2011: 

(www.bit.ly/Yneb1q)

Here we see that country's with higher rates of literacy have lower fertility rates. Citizens who cannot read are less knowledgable about research pertaining to contraception and family planning and do not have the literary abilities to educate themselves. In addition, when a person is literate he/she has so many more opportunities to have a well-paying job and women do not have time to stay at home and raise children. 

(http://www.hindustantimes.com/Images/2009/9/1c1cc811-1176-404f-96fb-fc3f07a6806cHiRes.JPG)

This graph shows GDP per capita (US $) and literacy rate of adults in all countries (% of people ages 15+) in 2011: 

(www.bit.ly/10YzvdW)

This graph shows a similar trend to that of the rate of literacy and fertility. In general, the highest literacy rates are found in countries with higher GDPs. There are a few exceptions, however, and this further proves the idea that these relationships are correlational. Literacy has a large impact on GDP because the ability to read helps citizens find jobs and earn annual incomes. 

There is a strong relationship between GDP and fertility in countries all over the world. Given confounding variables such as literacy, we are unable to find causation among this data. Zimbabwe, for instance, has a 90.7% literacy rate, which is astoundingly high given the country's low GDP. Some data collected is unexplainable and does not go along with the hypothesis of both economists and political scientists. Our only hope is that there is a symbiotic balance between these three variables and that countries in the world continue to develop into strong, stable nations. 

(http://www.indexmundi.com/zimbabwe/literacy.html)

Tessa - Fertility and Economic Growth in India

Fertility Rate and Economic Growth in India
By Tessa Enzy Tookes 

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d3/Baiga_women_and_children,_India.jpg)

With a population of over 1.2 billion people, India is the second-most populous country in the world. After gaining independence from British rule in 1947, India has been slowly and steadily reconstructing its society and working towards a level of economic stability. Pratibha Patil, the former President of India said in a 2012 interview:  "Today India is among the most attractive destinations globally, for investments and business and FDI had increased over the last few years." Over the last decade, India has displayed a definite upward economic trend and it is predicted that India will continue on this path for years to come. 
(http://itrade.gov.il/india/2012/05/16/indian-economic-report-2011-2012/)

India's GDP per capita (current US$): 

                                 .

GDP (PPP) 
India's current GDP per capita: $3,652

GDP (nominal) 
India's current GDP per capita: $1,514

India currently has the tenth highest GDP in the world. Considering the social and economic turmoil India has faced since the rise of the 20th century, economists around the world have big hopes for India's growing economy. With a growth rate fluctuating between 5.3% and 8%, it is clear that India is stepping into the running against superpower countries such as the United States, China and France. 

(http://www.atibt.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/2.3-OLAM-India.pdf)

To get a sense of the breakdown of the India's population, here is a graph showing India's 2011 population by age:

(http://data.worldbank.org/

Here is a graph showing India's decreasing fertility rate from :

 

From this graph it is apparent that India's fertility rate has been steadily decreasing over the last 50 years. Perhaps this somehow correlates to India's increasing GDP.

Here is a scatter plot of both India's GDP and fertility rate over the past 50 years:



If you watch the animation of India's GDP and fertility rate over the course of 50 years, you see the steady decline of fertility rate along the Y axis while the GDP climbs the X axis at a consistent rate starting from the top left hand corner and ending in the bottom right (lower fertility rate and higher GDP.)

This graph shows India's fertility rate and GDP from 2001-2011:

                                                            (http://data.worldbank.org/)


Correlation: -0.958

From this graph it is clear that as India's GDP increases, the fertility rate decreases. This graph displays a negative correlation between GDP and fertility rate, which is what I was originally predicting.
I believe that there is a strong connection between India's rising GDP and decline fertility rate. As India's economy flourishes, the accessibility of healthcare also increases. This ability to receive healthcare increases knowledge about various methods of contraception, which would be a primary contributing factor to a decreasing fertility rate. With the availability of birth control and other types of contraceptives, Indian women (and men) have more power over whether or not they have a child. "The contraceptive prevalence rate in India increased from about 13% in 1971 to 41% in 1992/93 and to 56% in 2006/06."

(Jain, Anrudh K., Jain, Aparna; "Family Planning and Fertility in India" UNFPA - ICOMF Regional Consultation; Family Planning in Asia and the Pacific: Addressing the Challenges), Bangkok, Thailand, Dec. 2010.)

Reflection
I think that India's GDP will continue to increase. India's economy has been growing tremendously ever since gaining independence from Great Britain. India's excellent agricultural industry has strengthened trading relations with various countries. These factors have greatly benefitted India's economy and socio-economic systems. Based on the longitudinal data collected, I expect that India's power and economic stability will definitely continue for years to come.